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          Financing risk heating copper prices downward pressure

          In June 2nd, media reports Qingdao port to emerge through the repeated pledge warehouse receipt acquiring trade financing irregularities, known as Qingdao port in the Dragon Boat Festival has begun a special investigation. Then, with a lot of attention in the industry on this matter and the subsequent information gradual disclosure, Qingdao port metal financing violations continued fermentation, make the copper market ring thunder.
          This event has become the fuse, causing global traders and banks for verification of their own in the matter of risk exposure, Chinese banks to tighten credit, Standard Chartered Bank directly stop on a part of Chinese new customers metal finance news came one after another. Because the commodity financing has become an important part of the shadow banking China, the market parties are continuing to pay close attention to this matter affect the future destiny of the copper trade financing, and its influence on the copper market.
          Obviously, the port of Qingdao metal financing violations created panic among market participants, thus the market confidence hit, raised recently copper prices fell. But in addition to the effect on market sentiment, this event will be the future direction of the copper market or more far-reaching impact.
          First of all, the interrupt copper financing downsizing or business, or will cause had been financing inventory was "unlock" lock, stock release will significantly increase the supply of copper. For refined copper as collateral for financing is the current domestic many enterprises an important channel for low cost financing, if further investigation of this incident confirms Chinese does exist a lot of warehouse receipt fraud, bank credit crunch will trigger a series of chain reaction of breach of contract. Part of the enterprise will be unable to roll over the copper financing will have to release the lock once for financing inventories, and dumped on the market to obtain cash inventory. Lift the metal financing will lead the market to appear invisible inventory large-scale sell-off, or will therefore flood the market, resulting in copper supply increased, so that the copper bearing.
          Secondly, further fermentation of the event or will affect copper import financing needs, thus bring profound impact on global copper market equilibrium. Copper financial attribute support significant effect on copper prices in the wake of the financial crisis. Refined copper price long-term higher than their cost of production, copper financing needs no power strong. If further tightening to open this event to bank credit, will lead to copper import financing scale down, end, even such a business that copper financing needs would be hit, prices will also be affected.
          In fact, in the before the event, because the regulators to strengthen supervision of the determination of trade financing, bank credit demands have become more stringent, especially small and medium-sized traders to open the letter of credit difficulty increased significantly. After the incident, a more rigorous review, issuing more difficult is a big probability event. However, the short term, this change to the copper market there is another layer: the short-term effect of refined copper imports will be inhibited, thereby reducing the stock of domestic copper supply market, or will push up domestic spot premium and Shanghai copper price will be maintained at a higher level.
          In general, the short term, the port of Qingdao metal financing violations against market confidence, put downward pressure on prices from the market atmosphere, but because of refined copper imports affected, the domestic spot is expected to be tight, resulting in copper city strong outside weak situation. In the long term, this incident caused the tightening of credit may become locked the outflow of the fuse stock financing, and financing needs caused by pressure on copper.
          The formation of the long-term effects of this will be the gradual divergence behavior rather than transient radical broke out, and the mode of its severity and the regulators and the bank's handling of the incident and is closely related to attitude: if the matter after investigation are determined for individual cases, bank credit is not so closed tight, its impact will gradually be the market to digest; but if the warehouse receipt pledge proves to be repeated illegal operations are widely existing words, strict examination and credit contraction in Bank of trade financing will continue in the future of fermentation, and the copper trade financing, the copper market supply and demand balance and copper made a profound influence.

          Links:Tianchang Aijia packing material Co., Ltd. Chinese copper network Copper home Copper net

              Add:Minsheng Industrial Park of Yongfeng town in Tianchang Telephone:0550-7785699 Fax:0550-7785699 Web site:www.jp-cool.com

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